Housing market continues to hold its breath

  • Brexit vote uncertainty continues, as annual price growth slows to 5.5% in July
  • Transaction levels and prices continue to edge up

There’s consensus in the housing market over Brexit; it’s still too early to tell what the long-term impact will be. While the vote to leave has resulted in uncertainty, there’s near unanimity among commentators that the impact is yet to show in the figures. For now, we’re left with mixed signals.

On the one hand, house price inflation on an annual basis continues to slow. A gradual decline from February, when it was running at 8.9%, has seen it fall to 5.5% for the 12 months to the end of July. On the other hand, last month saw the market continue its fight back following price falls in March to May. July saw a modest gain after June’s 0.5% rise, with average prices up 0.2% or £700. Overall, this means prices remain £3,386 below their February peak, but £15,422 above their July 2015 levels. The trend in prices remains modest, but upwards sloping.

Adrian Gill, director of Your Move estate agents, says: “Brexit may well have an impact on the housing market, but it’s not showing yet. Even when it does, there will be positive as well negative influences on the market, which clearly has some strong long-term drivers for continued house price inflation.”


Source: LSL/Acadata England & Wales House Price Index, July 2016

YM EW HPI July16