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House Price Index

November 2016 - November proves to be a quiet
month for Scotland’s house prices

Fast Facts

  • Argyll and Bute sees highest price movement in the month.

  • Purchases of homes in excess of £750k decline from October levels.

  • Forecasts for 2017 house prices are relatively subdued.

Headline News

Scotland house prices level out in November

  • After a big rise in October, price growth slowed in November, creeping up just 0.1%. The average Scottish house increased in value by £122 and is now worth £171,876. Sales of high value homes, particularly, which surged in October, returned to more normal levels in November.

  • In the absence of significant falls in December, the trend for 2016 in Scottish housing will be one of modest but steady growth. As of November, average prices were up 2.1% on an annual basis and look set to end the year at their highest level since May 2015.

Quick Quotes

Christine Campbell, Your Move Managing Director in Scotland, said:
"Scotland property prices have continued to push up this year. Despite all the uncertainty of the last 12 months, the market enters 2017 having proved its resilience."

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, said:
"The last few months have really highlighted how sales at the top of the market can impact the average figures, and how heavily these are effected by government policies. Nevertheless, most areas in Scotland continue to see modest growth despite all that’s been thrown at the market this year."

Key insights

  • The slowdown in November follows October’s rise on the back of cheaper mortgages after the August interest rate cut – one of three significant disruptions this year. The others were the 3% Land and Building Transaction Tax (LBTT) surcharge on second homes in April, which was preceded by a spike in prices; and a slump in June at the time of theBrexit vote. Throughout the whole of the year, prices have trended gently upwards at about 0.15% a month.
  • Transactions of high value properties fell back in November, with just 17, compared to 52 in October. Year to date, there have been 401 transactions over £750,000 against 555 in the whole of 2015 (231 of those in March, ahead of the new LBTT rates). Brexit and the impact of LBTT on homes worth over £750,000 (which pay the top 12% rate) continue to dampen forecasts of price rises for 2017.
  • Despite the challenges, high value areas have seen some of the biggest price increases over the last year. East Dunbartonshire saw the greatest increase in prices, up 12.3% in thelast 12 months to make it the third most expensive local authority, with an average price of £239,789. East Renfrewshire, which has overtaken Edinburgh to become the most expensive area, has increased 10.5%, with prices at £255,523. Only Clackmannanshire can also boast double digit growth over the year, with prices increasing 11.3%.
  • On a monthly basis, Argyll and Bute, up 3.9% saw the biggest increase, again reflecting the impact of high value properties, with two sales of houses close to £1 million each pushing up the figure. The biggest falls in prices were seen in Inverclyde and North Ayrshire, down 4.5% and 5.3% respectively in November. The cheapest areas other than Na h-Eileanan Siar, they have also seen some of the poorest annual performance. Overall, though, 24 of Scotland’s 32 areas have seen price rises over the last year.

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