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House Price Index

October 2016 - Scotland leads the way

Fast Facts

  • Scotland house price growth outpaces all other regions in October.

  • First time buyers account for more than 50% of the Scottish market.

  • High priced £325k+ home sales rebounding.

  • Value property also stays strong.

Headline News

  • House prices grew at their strongest rate since March 2015 in October, up 1.5% during the month – an increase of nearly £2,500 on the average property which is now worth £172,561. On an annual basis, prices are now up 2.9%, against 2.1% in September.

  • Your Move/Acadata estimates, meanwhile, show 26,544 transactions in the third quarter,– a reduction of 3.6% on 2015, but comfortably ahead of the two preceding years. Transactions have recovered strongly since their slump following the large number of purchases brought forward ahead of April’s additional 3% Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) surcharge on second homes.

Quick Quotes

Christine Campbell, Your Move Managing Director in Scotland, said:
"Scotland is proving to be a resilient market. With the recovery of interest in prime property, we’re seeing areas of strong growth across all price points."

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, said:
"Very little seems to be able to dent the Scottish market at the moment. So far it’s come through the uncertainty over Brexit relatively unscathed, and now it looks like it’s bouncing back well from the stamp duty changes. It’s been a confident display this year."

Key insights

  • The market in Scotland showed surprising strength in October, growing faster than all nine English regions, as well as Wales.
  • It was helped by a revival in prime property in particular. Edinburgh, for instance, with an average price of £252,488 in October, had seen sales of £325,000+ priced properties in the first half of the year - down 17% on 2015. In the third quarter, though, they were up almost 8% on the same period last year, and up more than a third (34%) on Q2.
  • Overall, sales of properties in excess of £325,000 were up 35% in the third quarter against the second, while transactions of all properties over the period were up less than half that, rising 16%. The strong interest in prime property is reflected in gains in house prices in the most expensive areas: Edinburgh is up 8.7% on an annual basis, East Renfrewshire up 10.4%, and East Dunbartonshire up 16.5%.
  • The strength in the Scottish market is broad-based, though. On a monthly basis, West Dunbartonshire (average property price £130,304 in October) easily outpaced its richer neighbour East Dunbartonshire (average price £245,427), with prices growing 18.6%, against 7.3% respectively. (Annually it still trails, but is up a respectable 12.1%). Mid-market Orkney (£154,583), meanwhile, is up 11.3% over the month and leads the table for annual growth, with prices up 18% on last year.
  • Of 32 local authority areas, 24 continue to show growth on an annual basis. Along with those mentioned, Na h-Eileanan Siar (the cheapest area of Scotland with average prices of £109,934) has also performed well, up 10.7% annually, as have the Shetland Islands (up 12.7%) and East Ayrshire (9.9%).

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